One month ago, on the morning of Feb. 4, forces from Somalia’s Puntland region attacked Islamic State terror group fighters, who responded with drones, suicide attacks and infantry charges.

Regional officials said 15 soldiers were killed in the fighting near the village of Qurac. But hours later, the terrorist fighters were forced to vacate their positions, leaving behind at least 57 of their dead.

The following week, the Islamic State, also known as IS, ISIS or Daesh, carried out a major counterattack, sending multiple suicide bombers and a wave of fighters against Somali forces in the Togjaceel valley, in Puntland’s Cal Miskaad mountains. Regional officials say the gun battle resulted in some 100 fatalities — 28 soldiers and more than 70 militants.

But again, IS fighters had to retreat, and soon lost three bases to the Puntland forces.

The battles are part of a recent offensive against Islamic State fighters holed up in the mountains of semi-autonomous Puntland. Observers say the success, while most certainly welcome, came somewhat as a surprise.

Military commanders had expected that as they got closer to the area’s main IS strongholds of Shebaab, Dhaadaar and Dhasaan, that the terror group would fight hard and launch frequent counterattacks.

But that has not been the case.

The Puntland forces have been capturing caves and small villages one after the other, and they have routed IS from the strategic 40-kilometer-long Togjaceel Valley, from Turmasaale to Dhasaan.

Somali officials told VOA it appears that the IS fighters, rather than trying to hold their positions, have fled, breaking into three groups, all headed in different directions.

About 100 IS fighters, along with some family members, have sought to escape to Karinka Qandala, another mountainous area to the north of the group’s former stronghold in the Togjaceel Valley.

Two larger groups fled to Tog Miraale and Tog Curaar, to the west and northwest. The group that went northwest, according to officials, was hit by airstrikes in the vicinity of Miraale Village.

“Intelligence assessments indicate a high likelihood of attempts to establish new safe havens following their retreat,” according to Brigadier General Ahmed Abdullahi Sheikh, the former commander of Somalia’s U.S.-trained Danab forces.

“The offensive, though appearing conventional, has consistently involved guerilla tactics,” said Sheikh, who has been closely following the offensive in his home region.

“The Togjaceel Valley defeat will likely drive ISIS to intensify asymmetric warfare, launching an attempt on irregular campaign against Puntland.”

Sheikh said he believes Puntland’s counterterrorism force has the numbers and the resources to carry out a protracted conflict with IS.

The United Arab Emirates has been providing air support, including airstrikes against the militants. The United States also carried out two rounds of airstrikes targeting IS last month.

The U.S. strikes are thought to have killed 16 militants, including Ahmed Maeleninine, described by U.S. officials as a “recruiter, financier and external operations leader responsible for the deployment of jihadists into the United States and across Europe.”

The Pentagon declined comment when asked about the apparent IS retreat.

But a U.S. defense official, speaking on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss an ongoing operation, indicated Washington is prepared to potentially lend additional help.

“The Department remains committed to supporting our partners in our shared efforts to disrupt, degrade and defeat terrorist organizations in the Horn of Africa,” the official told VOA.

Other observers said the “persistent” pressure by the Somali forces, along with help from the U.S. and UAE, appears to be paying off.

“Indications [are] that the Puntland forces are making real progress against ISIS in Somalia’s hideouts,” a former senior Western counterterrorism official told VOA, requesting anonymity to discuss the ongoing developments.

“The question is whether they [the Puntland forces] will be able to continue to hold the captured hideouts, or whether ISIS will be able to return in the coming weeks and months,” the official said.

If the Somali forces are able to hold the captured territory, though, the damage to the terror group could extend well beyond Somalia’s borders.

“Given the central role of the al-Karrar office in financing the wider ISIS network, there could be some knock-on impact,” said the former Western counterterrorism official.

Al-Karrar is one of nine regional Islamic State offices established to help sustain the terror group’s capabilities. Since 2022, the office has been a key cog in the terror group’s financial network, funneling money to affiliates in Afghanistan and elsewhere in Africa.

Concerns, however, remain.

Regional security analysts warn IS could regroup if Puntland’s counterterrorism forces are unable to maintain their pursuit.

“Their mobile special forces have been the pointed end of the spear,” said Samira Gaid, a Horn of Africa security analyst.

“For the moment, it appears that the Puntland forces are committed and well resourced,” she told VOA. “However, much will depend on the Puntland forces then securing and manning the territories it will liberate to ensure the group does not make a comeback.”

As for IS, the terror group is “attempting to melt into the population, though this is difficult,” said Gaid. “It’s the natural progression when faced by a force that is superior.”

The tactic also may have bought IS time to hide some of its most prominent and most important leaders.

Somali forces have found no trace of Abdul Qadir Mumin, thought to lead not just IS-Somalia but the entire IS terror operation.

IS-Somalia operational commander Abdirahman Fahiye Isse and IS-Somalia finance chief Abdiweli Mohamed Yusuf are also in hiding.

Somali officials have nonetheless appealed to them, and to Fahiye in particular, to surrender.

“The people whom you think will give you a sanctuary are guiding the army,” Puntland military commander General Adan Abdihashi said after capturing Mumin’s headquarters on March 1.

“Don’t put young people in harm’s way,” Abdihashi said. “I swear to God, you will get the punishment you deserve.”

Said Abdullahi Deni, Puntland region’s leader, has also offered IS members in Somalia, including women and children, a chance to surrender and for foreign fighters to possibly even return to their countries of origin.

“They [IS] envisioned it as a place where they cannot be seen, strategically a tough place, and gives them access to the Indian Ocean and Gulf of Aden and the Arabian Gulf,” he said.

But he has warned Puntland’s forces are prepared to hunt and eliminate remnants of the terror group “until all terrorists, their movement and their bases are eliminated.”

Various estimates from Somali and Western counterterrorism officials put the number of IS fighters in Somalia at up to 1,600, bolstered by an influx of fighters from Ethiopia, Morocco, Sudan, Syria, Tanzania and Yemen.

Experts such as Samira Gaid said IS-Somalia’s growing numbers combined with the difficult terrain in Puntland’s mountains may have led to overconfidence.

“The miscalculation to face the Puntland forces seemed to have been their folly,” she said, adding that about 500 IS fighters have been killed in the recent fighting.

IS-Somalia has suffered “grave losses,” Gaid said, “and will most likely not be recovering in the short to medium term.”

This story is a collaboration between VOA’s Africa Division and the News Center.