Welcome back to The Farda Briefing, an RFE/RL newsletter that tracks the key issues in Iran and explains why they matter.

I'm RFE/RL correspondent Kian Sharifi. In this edition, Im looking at why Iran needs the results of Iraqs upcoming parliamentary elections to go its way, and what it would mean if Tehran doesnt get the result it wants.

What You Need To Know

Eyes On Iraq:Iraqs parliamentary elections on November 11come at a critical momentfor Tehran. With its influence in the region facing growing challenges, the results could determine whether Iran keeps a key foothold or ends up juggling proxies from a distance, at a higher cost.

Leftist Economists, Sociologists Detained:Security forces in Tehran raided several homes this week, going after left-leaning scholars and writers. They arrested economist Parviz Sedaqat, sociologist Mahsa Asadollahnejad, and translator Shirin Karimi, and they summoned economist Mohammad Maljoo, whose status is still unclear. Theres no official explanation yet. Hossein Qazian, a US-based Iranian sociologist, told RFE/RLs Radio Farda the authorities are sending a message: a show of force to remind critics the state hasnt lost its grip.

Ask Me Anything, On Reddit: I've beenfielding sharp questionson Iran and the wider Middle East on Reddit this week. If youre into nuanced takes and back-and-forths, you might enjoy the thread. Ill be answering until later today, so if theres something on your mind, youve still got time to drop it in. Go on, AMA!

The Big Issue

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammad Shia al-Sudani meets Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran in November 2022.

Holding On To Iraq

Setbacks in Syria and increasing pressure on Hezbollah in Lebanon have made Iraq the central stage for Iran to protect its regional influence, maintain economic access, and preserve its deterrence strategy.

In other words, what happens in Baghdad over the next few weeks could have ripple effects far beyond Iraqs borders.

Shiite factions within Iraqs Coordination Framework -- home to Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani -- are now at odds over US-backed moves to disband the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the Iran-aligned militias folded into Iraqs army.

Once united under Tehran, many Shiite groups are now running against each other, signaling a shift toward transactional politics. Last month, Iran sent Quds Force chief Esmail Qaani to Baghdad to try to contain the rivalries, but its still unclear if he succeeded.

Why It Matters:For Tehran, Iraq has become its most crucial foothold -- the go-to anchor for regional influence and deterrence as its options elsewhere in the Middle East shrink.

With Iraqs Shiite Coordination Framework showing cracks and voters growing tired of militia politics, theres an opening for more nationalist forces to chip away at Irans grip on government formation, especially if turnout is low and coalition talks drag on.

US pressure to disarm the PMF and tighten state control directly challenges Tehrans leverage, making heavy-handed tactics riskier and costlier.

For Iran, a real setback would be a coalition that sidelines its closest allies from key posts in security, energy, and finance -- curbing PMF budgets and steering ministries toward economic diversification.

Still, even if pro-Iran parties lose ground, Tehran isnt out of moves. Its networks in Iraqs militias, media, and backroom politics can still give it veto power in postelection bargaining. Iran has long shown it can turn chaos into leverage -- just look at Hezbollahs role in Lebanons political deadlock from 2016 to 2020.

What's Being Said:Iranian officials have mostly stayed quiet about the upcoming elections next door, but state-linked media have been sounding the alarm for weeks about what they call Western attempts to sway the vote.

The hard-line Tasnim News Agency, tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), claimed the US Embassy in Baghdad has become a hub for shaping and directing Iraqs elections. It also accused Israel and several Gulf Arab states of trying to influence the outcome in hopes of pressuring the axis of resistance.

Meanwhile, the official IRNA news agency quoted pro-Iran Iraqi commentators who say Washington wants a say in forming Iraqs next government.

Expert Opinion:"The parliamentary elections could indeed be consequential for Iran, because if its preferred candidates fare poorly, it's just another thing that goes wrong for Tehran and could lead to a cascading effect where Iranian power is viewed as significantly diminished," said Colin Clarke, executive director of the Soufan Center, a New York-based think tank.

That's all from me for now.

Until next time,

Kian Sharifi

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